This report provides updated results for the comparison between a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data as of May 06.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we chose two different levels of efficacy and early case detection, considering a daily coverage of 30% of the symptomatic cases and of 50%.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 30% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 50% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 50% coverage.