New H1N1 Flu Projections: Updated USA report (May the 11th).

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This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data of May the 11th.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 24.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 24.

Best case scenario with 30% antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 24.

Scenario with 30% antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 24.

New H1N1 Flu Projections: First USA report with containment/mitigation measures implemented.

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This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data of April the 30.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas.

Risk maps

The maps illustrating likelihood of case generation does not show large difference between the worst-case and the containment scenario. In other words we expect in both scenarios to observe cases in the future in most of the US states. The number of cases is however reduced in the containment scenario. We expect the containment measure implemented at the present stage to be more effective and result in a small number of cases than those predicted as of today.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 17.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 17.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 17.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 17.

Worst case scenario. Likelihood of occurrence of cases on May 17

Worst case scenario. Likelihood of occurrence of cases on May 17

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment. Likelihood of occurrence of cases on May 17

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment. Likelihood of occurrence of cases on May 17

Please note that we also provide reports that focus on the EU and the world-wide situation. Visit our homepage for an overview of what we have to offer.

Animation of the evolution of new H1N1 flu in the Continental United States

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This post presents a visualization of the new predictions concerning the geographical distribution of the expected number of cases in the US. The new simulations are adjusted by considering data and reports as of April the 28th.

We thank Willy Pell and the UUorld team for providing us their software for the animated visualization of our prediction data.

New H1N1 flu projections: second USA detailed report

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This report presents the new predictions concerning the geographical distribution of the expected number of cases in the US. The new simulations are adjusted by considering data and reports as of April the 28th.

The predictions confirm the trends and number of cases obtained with the data of April the 26th. The only area in which we observe a relevant increase in the number of cases is the New York metropolitan area with a number of case exceeding 200.

We remark also in this case the excellent agreement with the predictions obtained with a different computational model by Prof. Brockmann group at Northwestern University.

Feeded initial condition May 10

Expected number of cases May 10

Feeded initial condition May 17

Expected number of cases on May 17

Finally we report the risk map at the state level expressing the likelihood of case occurrence before the date of May the 10th and May 17th.

Likelihood of the occurance of cases May 10

Likelihood of the occurrence of cases May 10

Likelihood of the occurance of cases May 17

Likelihood of the occurrence of cases May 17

New H1N1 Flu projections: first USA detailed report

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This is the first detailed report on the GLEaM model predictions in U.S.A. concerning the high transmissibility case and worst case scenario (no effective containment implemented).
The model calibration and initialization is reported in the post of April 28th.
The predictions are obtained with data updated on April the 27th. Predictions with data as of April the 29th will be posted in the next few hours.

We provide detailed maps at the level of population ¼ x ¼ cells in the continental US. The following maps report the likelihood of the occurrence of cases. Major cities with the largest impact are reported. The maps refer to worst case scenarios in which non effective containment measure is implemented. Scenarios referring to containment measures will be posted in the next days.

We notice that the present results are in good agreement with the results provided by  Prof. Brockmann group at Northwestern University. The two models works at different scales and use a different modeling schemes. The calibration of the models was executed independently.

Risk maps three weeks ahead.

As we are working with stochastic predictions we report risk maps showing the probability that infected isolates are present in the state as of a given date:

  • Monday, May the  3th
  • Monday, May the 10th
  • Monday, May the 17th

The risk is quantified by the likelihood of the occurrence of cases in a given zone according to our stochastic model.

We are not pushing any anticipation beyond three weeks as the containment measures that will be put in place has to be considered (we will pull out new scenarios every 24/48 hours).

It is important to stress once again that the evolution of the model is calibrated with the early evolution of the epidemics. Warnings and containment measures are likely to be effective and the model will have to be calibrated once more in the next days.

U.S. risk map for May 3, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 3, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 10, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 10, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 17, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 17, 2009

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