New H1N1 Flu projections: EU report updated to May 6

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This report provides updated results for the comparison between a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data as of May 06.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we chose two different levels of efficacy and early case detection, considering a daily coverage of 30% of the symptomatic cases and of 50%.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 30% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 50% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 50% coverage.

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 50% coverage.

New H1N1 Flu projections: impact in Europe and effect of containment/mitigation measures

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This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data as of May 03.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°.

Predictions for May 17, 2009 (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Please note that we also provide reports that focus on the USA and the world-wide situation. Visit our homepage for an overview of what we have to offer.

New H1N1 Flu projections: First EU report comparing worst case with containment/mitigation measures

Posted on:

This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data of April the 30.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°, and the larger geographical areas predicted to report cases are also shown.

Risk maps

The maps illustrating likelihood of case generation does not show large difference between the worst-case and the containment scenario. Likelihood of case occurrence is quite small in the other countries, but the projections show that we might expect reported cases in European countries not yet reached by the infection.  The number of cases is however reduced in the containment scenario. We expect the containment measure implemented at the present stage to be more effective and result in a small number of cases than those predicted as of today.

Number of cases on May 17. Left: worst case scenario with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Number of cases on May 17. Left: worst case scenario with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Likelihood of occurrence of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Likelihood of occurrence of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

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