The following videos show the geographical and temporal propagation of a pandemic influenza in the world produced by GLEaMviz. GLEaM assumes that a pandemic emerges in Hong-Kong, on June 1, 2007, and spreads in the world by means of infectious travelers. Dots indicate the main transportation hubs, and their size is proportional to their population size. In addition, dots are color coded according to the level of infection present in that area, from green (no epidemic activity), over yellow (low epidemic activity) to red (high epidemic activity). Straight lines represent the flight connections between pairs of airports, and they appear as the first infectious passenger seeds a non infected area, bringing the virus from an outbreak zone. GLEaM was configured with a prototypical seasonal influenza with an expected reproductive number equal to 2.3, meaning that on average an infectious person can transmit the infection to 2.3 susceptibles during the his/her infectious period. The following video focuses on the worldwide scale.
GLEaM is a Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in spatially structured stochastic disease models to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. GLEaM considers a population of 6 billion individuals mapped on census cells of 15 × 15 minutes covering the entire Earth surface. It integrates this detailed census data in a multiscale mobility model with long-range transportation by air and short-range mobility patterns (check the GLEaM in detail webpage for additional details). The GLEaM simulation engine can simulate the stochastic infection dynamics occurring in the population in a given place of the world and model its propagation at the worldwide scale, taking into account the mobility of infectious individuals. GLEaM allows the analysis of vaccination programs, drugs deployment, travel restrictions and other mitigation and containment policies by the modeling of the corresponding intervention scenarios. The core model of GLEaM is coupled to GLEaMviz, an interface and visualization platform of the simulation results produced by GLEaM.