Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Winter Projections

These are our reports on the winter projections of the spread of the new H1N1 flu in the Northern hemisphere. These reports are based on the simulations performed with GLEaM, our Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler.

New knol on Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic

Published on December 15th, 2009

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of the demand for critical care and antibiotic usage due to the Fall 2009 wave of pandemic Influenza H1N1. Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic D Balcan, V Colizza, AC Singer, […]

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New publication on the analysis of the impact of the vaccination campaign on the current H1N1 pandemic

Published on November 12th, 2009

The results of our analysis on the impact of the vaccination campaign on the H1N1 influenza appear in the manuscript Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere P Bajardi, C Poletto, D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, […]

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EU winter projections: mitigation effect of antiviral treatment

Published on September 17th, 2009

The animation shows the predicted geotemporal evolution of the H1N1 flu epidemic in Europe for the next fall, comparing the no intervention scenario (left map) with a scenario in which mitigation strategies are considered (right map). Simulations for the no intervention scenario are obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis used to estimate the transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1). The antiviral treatment scenario foresees the use of antiviral drugs administered to 30% of the clinical cases within one day from the onset of symptoms.

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