Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Global reports

These are our reports on the projected global spread of the new H1N1 flu. These reports are based on the simulations performed with GLEaM, our Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler. You can find here below the full latest report based on the most recent data available to us, followed by links to our earlier reports.

New H1N1 Flu projections: worldwide report updated to May 16

This report provides the current situation for the number of cases worldwide, and the projections for the expected number of cases for May 31. The projections are obtained from the most recent calibration of the model, with the available information as of May 16. The simulations consider the worst case scenario, where no intervention is implemented, and scenarios where antiviral treatment is considered, with varying rates of early detection treatment.

The official data coming from USA now represent more and more just a fraction of the actual cases. As of May 22 the CDC was stating “..more than 100,000 people probably have this virus now in the United States”. This number is obtained by applying a multiplying factor due to sampling and under reporting of 10 to 20 to the number of confirmed cases. We project a number of cases in the USA close or above to 100,000 by the 31st. Our numbers always refers only to the symptomatic cases.

In view of a decreased interest in short term projections we are shifting the focus of our modeling in the analysis of longer term scenarios considering seasonal effects. Next postings will therefore refer to these scenarios.

Current situation

The following map shows the confirmed number of cases worldwide for all infected countries, updated to May 19, 00:00 GMT. Click on the map to enlarge it.

Empirical data for the confirmed number of cases as of May 19, 00:00 GMT.

Empirical data for the confirmed number of cases as of May 19, 00:00 GMT.


Projections: Worst case scenario

The following maps report the predicted number of cases worldwide forĀ  May 31. The color code corresponds to the maximum of the 95% confidence interval obtained by the stochastic runs of GLEaM. Numbers are also reported for the countries expected to experience the largest outbreak: the first value corresponds to the expected number of cases, and the value in brackets corresponds to the maximum of the 95% confidence interval.

Projections for May 31.

Worst case scenario, May 31. Number of cases.

Worst case scenario, May 31. Number of cases.

Projections: Antiviral treatment scenarios

Here we report the projections for a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We implement early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies. We assume a low level of efficacy in the early case detection and treatment, with a daily coverage of symptomatic case of 30% worldwide (top panel). These results are compared to a scenario in which in Europe we consider a different policy, with 90% daily rate of case detection and treatment delivery, thus providing a more optimistic scenario in the continent (bottom panel).

Projections for May 31.

Scenario with antiviral treatment, May 31. Number of cases. A 30% daily rate of case detection and treatment delivery is assumed worldwide.

Scenario with antiviral treatment, May 31. Number of cases. A 30% daily rate of case detection and treatment delivery is assumed worldwide.

Scenario with antiviral treatment, May 31. Number of cases. A 30% daily rate of case detection and treatment delivery is assumed worldwide, with the exception of Europe where a daily rate of 90% is considered.

Scenario with antiviral treatment, May 31. Number of cases. A 30% daily rate of case detection and treatment delivery is assumed worldwide, with the exception of Europe where a daily rate of 90% is considered.

Previous global reports

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