Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

EU reports

These are our reports on the projected spread of the new H1N1 flu in Europe. These reports are based on the simulations performed with GLEaM, our Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler. You can find here below the full latest report based on the most recent data available to us, followed by links to our earlier reports.

New H1N1 Flu projections: EU report updated to May 6

This report provides updated results for the comparison between a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data as of May 06.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we chose two different levels of efficacy and early case detection, considering a daily coverage of 30% of the symptomatic cases and of 50%.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 30% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 30% coverage.

Predictions for May 17, 2009, and 50% coverage of antiviral treatment (click on the map to enlarge it).

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 50% coverage.

Number of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment, 50% coverage.

Previous EU reports

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