Case Study: 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
Early outbreak comparisons
These are our reports on the comparison between the projected spread of the new H1N1 flu and the observed epidemic pattern, for the early phase of the outbreak. These reports are based on the simulations performed with GLEaM, our Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler.
The image below shows a snapshot of the animation comparing the impact of the number of cases in the US reported by official sources and the simulated cases. For the animation, visit this post.
Published on November 23rd, 2009
We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic conducted with GLEaM: Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model V Colizza, A Vespignani, N Perra, C [...]
Published on September 26th, 2009
The coupled animations show the geotemporal evolution of the swine flu epidemic in the United States, by comparing the observed pattern (left) with the simulated one (right). Simulations refer to the baseline scenario obtained from the maximum likelihood analysis used to estimate the transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1).