New publication on estimation of H1N1 seasonal transmission potential and projections for winter activity peaks
The results of our study on the estimation of the seasonal transmission potential of the H1N1 flu appear in the manuscript
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
D Balcan, H Hu, B Goncalves, P Bajardi, C Poletto, JJ Ramasco, D Paolotti, N Perra, M Tizzoni, W Van den Broeck, V Colizza, A Vespignani
BMC Medicine 2009, 7:45 .
A description of the Monte Carlo procedure used in the work to estimate the seasonal transmission potential and the results obtained for the projections of the winter activity peaks in the Northern hemisphere is reported here. The map below shows the 12 countries infected by travelers from Mexico used in the Monte Carlo likelihood analysis to estimate the H1N1 transmission potential. The color code of the arrows from red to yellow indicates the time ordering of the epidemic invasion.
Additional posts showing the comparison of simulations vs real data, and the visualizations of the projected evolution of the pandemic will be posted in the next few days.