New H1N1 flu projections: worldwide report updated to May 6

This report provides the current situation for the number of cases worldwide, and the projections for May 17 and May 24 of the expected number of cases and of the likelihood of case occurrence. The projections are obtained from the most recent calibration of the model, with the available information as of May 6. The simulations consider the worst case scenario, where no intervention is implemented, and a scenario where antiviral treatment is considered.

Current situation

The following map shows the confirmed number of cases worldwide for all infected countries, updated to May 11, 11am EDT. Click on the map to enlarge it.

Actual number of cases, May 11, 12 am EDT.

Empirical data for the confirmed number of cases on May 11, 11 am EDT.

Projections: Worst case scenario

The following map reports the predicted number of cases worldwide (top panel) for the date of May 17. The color code corresponds to the maximum of the 90% confidence interval obtained by the stochastic runs of GLEaM. Numbers are also reported for the countries expected to experience the largest outbreak: the first value corresponds to the expected number of cases, and the value in brackets corresponds to the maximum of the 90% confidence interval.

The bottom panel reports the risk map at the worldwide level for May 17. The risk is quantified as the likelihood of the occurrence of cases in each country. All countries that as of May 11 00:00 CET already reported cases are colored in dark gray.

Worst case scenario, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Worst case scenario, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Projections for May 24.

Worst case scenario, May 14. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Worst case scenario, May 24. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Projections: Antiviral treatment scenario with 30% coverage

Here we report the projections for a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We implement early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies. We assume a low level of efficacy and early case detection, with a daily coverage of symptomatic case of 30%. results obtained with a higher level of coverage are reported in the next section.

Projections for May 17.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of  occurrence of cases.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Projections for May 24.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 24. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 24. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Projections: Antiviral treatment scenario with 50% coverage

Here we assume a higher level of efficacy and early case detection, with a daily coverage of symptomatic cases of 50%.

Projections for May 17.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of  occurrence of cases.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 17. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

Projections for May 24.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 24. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of  occurrence of cases.

Best case scenario with antiviral treatment, May 24. Top: number of cases; bottom: likelihood of occurrence of cases.

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