New H1N1 Flu Projections: Updated USA report (May the 11th).

This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data of May the 11th.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 24.

Worst case scenario. Number of cases on May 24.

Best case scenario with 30% antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 24.

Scenario with 30% antiviral treatment. Number of cases on May 24.

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