New H1N1 Flu projections: impact per country

Published on May 7th, 2009

This report provides the current situation for the number of cases worldwide, and the projections for May 17 of the expected number of cases and of the likelihood of case occurrence. The projections are obtained from the most recent calibration of the model, with the available information as of May 3. The simulations consider the worst case scenario, where no intervention is implemented.

Impact per country: current situation

The following map shows the confirmed number of cases worldwide for all infected countries, updated to May 5, 11pm EDT.

Empirical data for the confirmed number of cases per country as of May 5.

Impact per country: projections for May 17

The following map reports the predicted number of cases worldwide for the date of May 17. The color code corresponds to the maximum of the 90% confidence interval obtained by the stochastic runs of GLEaM. Numbers are also reported for the countries expected to experience the largest outbreak: the first value corresponds to the expected number of cases, and the value in brackets corresponds to the maximum of the 90% confidence interval.

Projections for the number of cases per country, May 17. Worst case scenario.

Here below we report the risk map at the worldwide level for May 17. The risk is quantified as the likelihood of the occurrence of cases in each country. All countries that as of May7 00:00 CET already reported cases are colored in dark gray.

Likelihood of occurrence of cases per country, May 17. Worst case scenario.

Please note that we also provide reports that focus on the EU and the USA. Visit our homepage for an overview of what we have to offer.

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3 Responses to “New H1N1 Flu projections: impact per country”

Beatriz Vidondo says:

May 11, 2009 at 10:30 am

I applaud this effort and would like to understand the methods better. Unfortunately many of the links (GLEaM in detail, FAQ) do not work.

Is the information on the number of cases per ‘date of onset of illness’ as published in:
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/PDF/wk/mm5817.pdf
been used to produce these maps? Or rather the total number of confirmed cases per country?
Gleamviz Team says:

May 11, 2009 at 1:41 pm

Beatriz: Thank you for your kind words. Regarding the number of cases given in the world-wide figure: these are cases confirmed by the governments of the different countries as of May 5. They can be slightly different from the CDC report since we maintain an in-house up-to-date list of confirmed cases based on a number of official sources.

We are looking into the broken links issue. Thank you for reporting this.
S. Howell says:

May 11, 2009 at 9:47 pm

5/1/09 I first read “Worst Case Scenerio” of 1,700 infections by May 17th here: http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/20090501/sc_livescience/worstcasescenarioforfluestimated. At that time I was wondering how two teams could make such a confident prediction for a Novel type A virus, particularly in our current era of mobility, using an extremely low-ball idea of “worst-case”. I am glad to see that 6 days later you have changed your position and perhaps these predictions will match better with the reality. Thank you for the newer reports, I will gladly recommend your pages. S. Howell