New H1N1 Flu projections: First EU report comparing worst case with containment/mitigation measures

This report provides updated results for a worst-case scenario and a scenario in which some basic containment measure are considered. We include in this second scenario early detection of cases and their treatment with antiviral drugs. The date of the interventions are set according to the time line of warning and threat level issued by national and international agencies.

The simulations are calibrated considering the actual confirmed data of April the 30.

In modeling the effectiveness of the containment measures we have been very conservative, using a low level of efficacy and early case detection (not larger than 30% of cases). While this is not anymore a worst-case scenario we still believe that the actual containment should be more effective than what we implement in our algorithms.

Spatial distribution of infected

The maps showing the spatial distribution of cases report the expected number of cases and the maximum number of cases (in parentheses) according to a 90% confidence interval in major urban areas. The color code corresponds to the maximum number of cases at a resolution level of ¼°, and the larger geographical areas predicted to report cases are also shown.

Risk maps

The maps illustrating likelihood of case generation does not show large difference between the worst-case and the containment scenario. Likelihood of case occurrence is quite small in the other countries, but the projections show that we might expect reported cases in European countries not yet reached by the infection.  The number of cases is however reduced in the containment scenario. We expect the containment measure implemented at the present stage to be more effective and result in a small number of cases than those predicted as of today.

Number of cases on May 17. Left: worst case scenario with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Number of cases on May 17. Left: worst case scenario with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Likelihood of occurrence of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

Likelihood of occurrence of cases, May 17. Left: worst case scenario, with no intervention; right: scenario with antiviral treatment.

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