WorldWide new H1N1 Flu prediction adjusted with data as of April 28: likelihood of occurrence of cases

This report presents the new predictions concerning the likelihood of case detection worldwide at the country level. The new simulations are adjusted by considering data and reports as of April the 28th.

This report provides risk maps for the following dates:  May 10 and May 17.

The risk is quantified by the likelihood of the occurrence of case in a given zone according to our stochastic model.

The maps still refer to a high transmissibility (model calibration) and a worst case scenario with no effective containment measures implemented.

While most of the the likelihood of case detection as increased with respect to the projections obtained with the April the 26th data. We expect to see deviation from the predicted pattern in future updates as the result of WHO elevation in the pandemic threat level and the implementation of containment measures across the world.

World risk map May10

World risk map May10

World risk map May 17

World risk map May 17

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