New H1N1 Flu projections: first USA detailed report
This is the first detailed report on the GLEaM model predictions in U.S.A. concerning the high transmissibility case and worst case scenario (no effective containment implemented).
The model calibration and initialization is reported in the post of April 28th.
The predictions are obtained with data updated on April the 27th. Predictions with data as of April the 29th will be posted in the next few hours.
We provide detailed maps at the level of population ¼ x ¼ cells in the continental US. The following maps report the likelihood of the occurrence of cases. Major cities with the largest impact are reported. The maps refer to worst case scenarios in which non effective containment measure is implemented. Scenarios referring to containment measures will be posted in the next days.
We notice that the present results are in good agreement with the results provided by Prof. Brockmann group at Northwestern University. The two models works at different scales and use a different modeling schemes. The calibration of the models was executed independently.
Risk maps three weeks ahead.
As we are working with stochastic predictions we report risk maps showing the probability that infected isolates are present in the state as of a given date:
- Monday, May the 3th
- Monday, May the 10th
- Monday, May the 17th
The risk is quantified by the likelihood of the occurrence of cases in a given zone according to our stochastic model.
We are not pushing any anticipation beyond three weeks as the containment measures that will be put in place has to be considered (we will pull out new scenarios every 24/48 hours).
It is important to stress once again that the evolution of the model is calibrated with the early evolution of the epidemics. Warnings and containment measures are likely to be effective and the model will have to be calibrated once more in the next days.