New H1N1 Flu projections: first USA detailed report

Published on April 29th, 2009

This is the first detailed report on the GLEaM model predictions in U.S.A. concerning the high transmissibility case and worst case scenario (no effective containment implemented).
The model calibration and initialization is reported in the post of April 28^th.
The predictions are obtained with data updated on April the 27th. Predictions with data as of April the 29th will be posted in the next few hours.

We provide detailed maps at the level of population ¼ x ¼ cells in the continental US. The following maps report the likelihood of the occurrence of cases. Major cities with the largest impact are reported. The maps refer to worst case scenarios in which non effective containment measure is implemented. Scenarios referring to containment measures will be posted in the next days.

We notice that the present results are in good agreement with the results provided by Prof. Brockmann group at Northwestern University. The two models works at different scales and use a different modeling schemes. The calibration of the models was executed independently.

Risk maps three weeks ahead.

As we are working with stochastic predictions we report risk maps showing the probability that infected isolates are present in the state as of a given date:

Monday, May the 3^th

Monday, May the 10^th

Monday, May the 17^th

The risk is quantified by the likelihood of the occurrence of cases in a given zone according to our stochastic model.

We are not pushing any anticipation beyond three weeks as the containment measures that will be put in place has to be considered (we will pull out new scenarios every 24/48 hours).

It is important to stress once again that the evolution of the model is calibrated with the early evolution of the epidemics. Warnings and containment measures are likely to be effective and the model will have to be calibrated once more in the next days.

U.S. risk map for May 3, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 10, 2009

U.S. risk map for May 17, 2009

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4 Responses to “New H1N1 Flu projections: first USA detailed report”

Mexican Flu projections: second USA detailed report « GLEaMviz.org says:

April 30, 2009 at 11:58 pm

[...] predictions confirm the trends and number of cases obtained with the data of Aprill the 26th. The only area in which we observe a relevant increase in the number of cases is the New York [...]
Simone Severini says:

May 1, 2009 at 12:19 am

Let us suppose that countries impose a travel ban. Suppose, moreover, that the number of people on the road decreases of a certain percentage, due to similar restrictions and a physiological decrement linked to the common psychology. Assume no further action. In such a setting, are these projections of the same form? Additionally, are the diffusion parameters of the same kind observed for the usual seasonal flu? Thank you for your work.
loring vogel says:

May 1, 2009 at 7:47 pm

i assume we are all going to be exposed in the next 4 months or so.

when is the best time to be exposed?

do more people survive in the summer or winter?

will the united states health system be overwhelmed by serious cases at some point? if so when is that going to happen? presumably that would not be a good time to be exposed.
Kenneth Lloyd says:

May 9, 2009 at 12:35 am

Thanks for publishing this information. I hope we (humanity) can learn what we can regarding SIR propagations without the hyperbole.

I also hope that some of this work is in conjunction with other complexity modeling and simulation at IU - of which I almost became a part.