New H1N1 flu projections: second USA detailed report

This report presents the new predictions concerning the geographical distribution of the expected number of cases in the US. The new simulations are adjusted by considering data and reports as of April the 28th.

The predictions confirm the trends and number of cases obtained with the data of April the 26th. The only area in which we observe a relevant increase in the number of cases is the New York metropolitan area with a number of case exceeding 200.

We remark also in this case the excellent agreement with the predictions obtained with a different computational model by Prof. Brockmann group at Northwestern University.

Feeded initial condition May 10

Expected number of cases May 10

Feeded initial condition May 17

Expected number of cases on May 17

Finally we report the risk map at the state level expressing the likelihood of case occurrence before the date of May the 10th and May 17th.

Likelihood of the occurance of cases May 10

Likelihood of the occurrence of cases May 10

Likelihood of the occurance of cases May 17

Likelihood of the occurrence of cases May 17

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