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Last update: December 23rd, 2009
New reports will be published on a regular basis. To be notified, subscribe to our RSS/Atom feed or follow gleamviz on Twitter.

GLEaM is a Global Epidemic and Mobility modeler that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. read more about GLEaM…

H1N1 Flu

We are currently using GLEaM to produce projections of the spread of the ongoing H1N1 Flu epidemic. We have produced and here published a range of short-term projections during the initial phase of the outbreak in the spring of 2009. We are currently producing a range of winter projections.

The following diagram is taken from our recent publication on modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the ongoing influenza A(H1N1) pandemic.

knol_2_figs

An overview of the kind of reports published on this website:

Winter projections
These are our reports on the winter projections of the spread of the new H1N1 flu in the Northern hemisphere. View winter projections…
Early outbreak comparisons
These are our reports on the comparison between the projected spread of the new H1N1 flu and the observed epidemic pattern, for the early phase of the outbreak. View early outbreak comparisons…
Early outbreak projections
There reports consider the situation in the continental USA. They provide results at the state and county level, and at the resolution scale of 1/4°. View early outbreak projections…

Please visit the How to read the data page in order to correctly frame the data presented in these reports.

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Recent posts

The following are the most recent reports and other items published on this website.

New publication on the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: GLEaM sheds light on the impact of multiscale mobility networks on spatial epidemic spread.
Published on December 23rd, 2009

In the issue of December the 22nd of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we publish a paper that discusses the interplay of human mobility patterns like those between local metropolitan commuters and long-range airline travelers during a global epidemic. The image of the worldwide mobility network constructed in our paper has been [...]

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New knol on Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic
Published on December 15th, 2009

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of the demand for critical care and antibiotic usage due to the Fall 2009 wave of pandemic Influenza H1N1.
Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic
D Balcan, V Colizza, AC Singer, C Chouaid, [...]

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New knol on the estimate of H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic
Published on November 23rd, 2009

We recently published a knol in PLoS Currents Influenza about the estimate of H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic conducted with GLEaM:
Estimate of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model
V Colizza, A Vespignani, N Perra, C Poletto, B [...]

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New publication on the analysis of the impact of the vaccination campaign on the current H1N1 pandemic
US early outbreak: real vs. simulated geographic pattern
Column on Airneth
EU winter projections: mitigation effect of antiviral treatment
US winter projections: mitigation effect of antiviral treatment
New publication on estimation of H1N1 seasonal transmission potential and projections for winter activity peaks
Projections for the activity peaks of the H1N1 pandemic in the fall
New H1N1 Flu projections: worldwide report updated to May 16
New H1N1 Flu Projections: Updated USA report (May the 11th).
New H1N1 Flu projections: EU report updated to May 6
New H1N1 flu projections: worldwide report updated to May 6
New H1N1 Flu projections: impact per country
New H1N1 Flu projections: impact in Europe and effect of containment/mitigation measures
New H1N1 Flu Projections: First USA report with containment/mitigation measures implemented.
New H1N1 Flu projections: First EU report comparing worst case with containment/mitigation measures
Animation of the evolution of new H1N1 flu in the Continental United States
New H1N1 flu projections: second USA detailed report
WorldWide new H1N1 Flu prediction adjusted with data as of April 28: likelihood of occurrence of cases
New H1N1 Flu projections: first USA detailed report
Projections for new H1N1 Flu spread by computational modeling
GLEaMviz at INFECTIOUS, Science Gallery, Dublin
Pandemic influenza videos
Introducing GLEaM